Assessing the local impacts of increasing high-temperature extremes at Euro-Mediterranean airports on aircraft takeoff performance

The increasing intensity and frequency of high-temperature extreme events due to climate change negatively affects aircraft takeoff performances. Warmer near-surface air temperatures result in lower aircraft lift and engine thrust, thereby reducing the aircraft’s weight-lifting capacity at takeoff. This study evaluates the potential impact of the future changes in high-temperature extremes on the aircraft’s Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) at the airports in the Euro-Mediterranean region —a climate change hotspot. Major, regional and small airports are considered. First, the evolution of high-temperature extremes at the airports is assessed using climate observations for the baseline period 1961-1990, and future climate projections under the most severe climate change scenario RCP8.5 for the periods 2021-2050 (near-term future) and 2041-2071 (medium-term future). Simulations from both Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs) belonging to the Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 frameworks, respectively, are considered in a Multi-Model Ensemble approach. Second, the MTOW is obtained by combining the climate data with aircraft technical data and applying an empirical law from the aeronautical sector, which relates the MTOW to the ambient temperature. The induced changes in MTOWare estimated for widebody, narrow-body and small regional aircrafts, widely used in global commercial aviation. Results indicate that most of Euro-Mediterranean airports could experience a decrease in MTOW, as early as the next three decades, at least for one aircraft type. For wide-bodies and narrow-bodies, these reductions are of the order of tons, according to the MME means of the RCMs and the GCMs: up to 7 tons in the near term and up to 11 tons in the medium term. Regional aircrafts would experience MTOW reductions of hundreds of kgs. This could have a socio-economic impact, either from possible weight restrictions, flight delays or cancellations. The results of this study could guide the design of adaptation strategies at the European level, aimed at building a climate change-resilient aviation network and ensuring that European aviation will be prepared for future extreme heat events.