Assessing the potential sensitivity of Typhoon Nesat to climate change under SSP5-8.5 scenario

In the context of climate change, understanding how future conditions influence typhoons has become a topic of interest for researchers. However, there is no consensus on how typhoons are projected to change, and the knowledge of how climate variables will affect them is still limited. This study aims to enhance the understanding of drivers of typhoons modifications under climate change through applying pseudo global warming (PGW) technique based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2100, taking Typhoon Nesat as a case study. At first, a mini-ensemble of WRF models with optimal performance in representing historical Typhoon Nesat were selected. Subsequently, PGW experiments based on this mini-ensemble were then carried out. To recognize the impacts of different climate factors, four (4) conditions were set in PGW fields: (1) only sea surface temperature (SST); (2) SST and air temperature (AT); (3) SST, AT, relative humidity (RH), and geopotential height (GPH); (4) SST, AT, RH, GPH, and wind velocity. The projections suggest that events similar to Typhoon Nesat will become more intense under future global warming conditions. Specifically, warmer SST plays the dominant role on its intensification, while increases in AT will mitigate some of this effect. These results indicate that in the context of climate change, the intensity of typhoons is likely to increase in the future. This study provides novel information which can help the development of local disaster countermeasures and with the purpose of enhancing the resiliency of local communities.