Combined effects of future climate and land use change on mosquitoes: The distribution of Culex pipiens under One Health scenarios in the Netherlands
Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Background: The world is experiencing rapid anthropogenic-driven changes in climate, biodiversity, and pollution. While most insect species are declining due to these changes, disease-transmitting mosquitoes, might thrive. However, the quantitative impacts of these changes on mosquito populations are not well understood. Our study aims to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate and land use/cover related factors on the potential future spatiotemporal distribution of Culex pipiens in the Netherlands for four One Health change scenarios Methods: We developed a random forest species distribution model, trained and cross-validated by Cx. pipiens trapping data as the response variable and climate and land use/cover related factors as explanatory variables. We used this model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of Cx. pipiens for previously established One Health scenarios and disentangled and evaluated the effects of climate and land use/cover changes. Results: Our results reveal that climatic factors are the main predictor underlying the temporal distribution of Cx. pipiens , while land use/cover factors shape their spatial distribution. Under One Health scenarios with greater levels of climate change, our results indicate a lengthening of the period that Cx. pipiens occurs and sustained high abundances during the summer months. Furthermore, our results suggest that land use/cover might mitigate the effects of climate change. Conclusions: Our study underscores the complex interplay of climate and land use/cover changes on the spatiotemporal distributions of Cx. pipiens , emphasizing the need to simultaneously consider climate and land use/cover impacts when adapting to Cx. pipiens related risks. Especially, the negative impact of increasing tree cover on mosquito abundance linked with targeted larval control might be an interesting avenue to explore.
