Forecasting the Fate of Forest Dwellers: Comparative Modeling of Barking Deer Habitats Against Climatic and Anthropogenic Shifts in the Western, Central, and Eastern Himalayas

Barking deer ( Muntiacus vaginalis Boddaert, 1785), or Northern Red Muntjac, is a solitary forest-dwelling cervid distributed from eastern Pakistan to Indonesia, including Southeast Asia. Despite its wide range, habitat assessments for the species are limited. This study models the distribution of Barking deer in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) using primary data (camera traps, sign surveys) and secondary data (literature, GBIF). Bioclimatic, land use, topographic, and anthropogenic variables were used to predict current and future habitat suitability for 2050 and 2090 under SSP2.6 and SSP8.5 emission scenarios. We analysed three biogeographic provinces of the IHR: Western Himalaya, Central Himalaya, and Eastern Himalaya. The estimated current suitable habitat is 7,363 km² in the Eastern Himalaya, 1,932 km² in the Central Himalaya and 30,573 km² in the Western Himalaya. Future projections indicate a decrease in suitable habitat in the Eastern and Central Himalayas under combined climate and land use change scenarios. Conversely, the Western Himalaya shows an increase in suitable habitat. Key variables influencing distribution include temperature and precipitation patterns, forest cover, and human impact indices. The landscape metrics and fragmentation analysis revealed significant differences across the provinces. The number of suitable habitat patches in the Western Himalaya is currently estimated at 347, with an increase in patch size projected under future scenarios. In contrast, the Central and Eastern Himalayas have 33 and 54 patches, respectively, with future projections indicating a decline in both number and size of patches. This fragmentation suggests that Barking deer in these regions may face greater habitat loss and reduced connectivity. Effective conservation planning and habitat management are crucial for sustaining Barking deer populations and the larger ecosystem, including predators that rely on them. The study emphasizes the need for enhanced conservation efforts, particularly in the Eastern and Central Himalayas.