Estimating the Timing and Tempo of Maladaptation Under Climate Change

Organisms may adapt to climate change, but the future temporal dynamics of maladaptation remain poorly understood, as forecasts typically rely on static snapshots. Here, we develop a temporal approach for genetic offset analysis, a proxy for potential maladaptation, that tracks the expected mismatch between current and future gene- climate relationships across annual timesteps, deriving new metrics that describe the timing and abruptness of climate-driven genetic disruption. Using balsam poplar as a proof-of-concept, we demonstrate that this approach can identify when and where populations may experience disruption, and reveal locations where high-magnitude, abrupt, and near-term offset converge. By incorporating time-explicit predictions, we systematically map when and where no-analogue climates emerge and gene–climate relationships plateau, highlighting spatiotemporal uncertainty in projections; an aspect not accounted for in conventional offset analysis. This generalisable approach advances climate adaptation research and supports spatio-temporal conservation planning by identifying when, how rapidly, and to what extent populations may diverge from their gene–climate associations under future climate, supporting emerging efforts to operationalise genetic indicators in conservation policy.