Wildfire Trends and Climate Relationships in Bulgaria Derived from fireCCI51 Burned Area Data

Understanding wildfire dynamics and their climatic and socio-economic drivers is es-sential for effective fire management in Southeastern Europe. This study presents the first long-term assessment of wildfire trends across different land-cover types in Bul-garia and the wider Balkan region using the FireCCI51 burned area dataset (2001–2022). Burned area patterns were analyzed in relation to temperature, relative humid-ity, precipitation, the Angström Index, and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). Croplands accounted for 96.4% of the total burned area (4.9 Mha), while wildfires in forests, grasslands, shrublands, and wetlands represented 3.6%. A declining trend in burned area was observed across all land-cover types, particularly in croplands and forests, likely linked to rural depopulation, agricultural land abandonment, and reduced use of fire in land management. Burned area correlated positively with temperature (r = 0.37–0.53) and VPD (r = 0.40–0.53), and negatively with relative humidity (r = –0.48 to –0.55) and the Angström Index, confirming the role of atmospheric dryness in fire oc-currence. Fire activity peaked in August, coinciding with maximum VPD and mini-mum Angström Index values. These findings highlight the combined influence of cli-matic aridity and socio-economic change on fire regimes and underscore the value of long-term satellite monitoring for adaptive fire management in the Balkans.