Elucidating Past Climate, Land Cover and Groundwater Trends in the Breede Gouritz Water Management Area, as Well as Anticipated Outcomes for the Near Future

The Breede Gouritz Water Management Area is critical for the agricultural and forestry industries, tourism, and property development. It is imperative to understand climate and related variable trends, groundwater depth and land cover trends, especially the interworking of these variables, which was the aim of this study. The catchment was divided into different climate and land cover subregions. A change detection analysis was utilized for four selected subregions, and the best models, according to the evaluation metrics, were used to forecast each variable into the near future. Relationships between variables were statistically correlated and compared to land cover trends. Results show that more arid/semi-arid areas expect temperature increases, evapotranspiration decreases, and precipitation decreases, rendering groundwater resources vulnerable. The temperate subregions to the West show mixed temperature trends and no trends in precipitation. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase. A rise in groundwater depth is expected in the near future, where increased precipitation is also expected. The impact of development in the entire subregion is already visible, with the possibility that urbanization and agricultural expansion could lead to diminishing wetlands and forests. Careful planning and consideration regarding groundwater resource management must be made, especially for vulnerable areas north and Northeast of the study area.