Clean Coal as a Transitional Buffer: A Critical Study of Livelihood Strategies amid South Africa’s Energy Decarbonisation

As the global momentum toward decarbonisation accelerates, coal-dependent economies face the dual imperative of reducing emissions while safeguarding livelihoods. South Africa, which relies on coal for over 85% of its electricity and employs more than 90,000 individuals directly in coal mining, stands at a critical crossroads. This paper examines whether Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs), including ultra-supercritical combustion, fluidised bed systems, and carbon capture and storage, can serve as a viable transitional solution within a just energy transition framework. Through a multi-dimensional analysis, the paper explores the employment potential of CCTs compared to renewable energy pathways, evaluates the scalability and environmental trade-offs of each approach, and contextualises their socioeconomic impacts, particularly in mono-industrial regions like Mpumalanga and Lephalale. Case studies from global experiences in the United States, China, India, and Australia are used to draw comparative insights. Special focus is given to South Africa’s experience with CCT deployment through Eskom and Sasol, including performance, design challenges, and carbon intensity. The paper argues that while CCTs may offer short-term mitigation of job losses and continuity for industrial operations, their long-term viability is constrained by cost, partial emissions reduction, and infrastructure limitations. Conversely, renewable-based transitions, although requiring more systemic restructuring and reskilling, offer higher employment multipliers, decentralised development opportunities, and greater environmental co-benefits. The study concludes with strategic recommendations for South Africa, including defining CCTs as transitional buffers with exit strategies, enhancing retraining programs, leveraging green finance, and fostering international collaboration. Ultimately, a just transition must be guided not solely by technology, but by integrated policies that prioritise both decarbonisation and socioeconomic equity.