Methodology of Determining the Necessary and Sufficient Capacities in Integrated Power Systems Based on the Forecasted Volumes of Electricity Production

For the first time, the problem of determining zonal indicators of electricity production and zonal power values that ensure prospective generation Wx in year x is solved. The developed mathematical model is based on statistical processing of a set of N retrospective daily electrical load graph (ELGi), i is the year index,, each of which has a maximum daily production Wimax in year i. The resulting zonal averages of the generation structure and the annual duration of the maximum power are used to identify from the set of N baseline daily ELGδi one of them that has the best zonal performance in terms of power errors. Such ELGδe is further used as a reference for determining zonal powers Pxb, Pxh and Pxp, as well as their errors. At the same time, the calibration coefficient α is determined by dividing the prospective electricity demand Wx in year x by the annual electricity production Wδe in the retrospective year of the reference ELGδe. It is proved that the zonal capacities Pxb, Pxh, Pxp are equal to the zonal capacities Pδeb, Pδeh and Pδep multiplied by the calibration factor α. It is proved that the errors of Pxb, Pxh, Pxp are identical to the errors of Pδeb, Pδeh and Pδep and therefore are minimal modulo of those possible on the set N of basic ELGδi.