Economic Efficiency of Renewable Energy Investments in Photovoltaic Projects: A Regression Analysis

Energy Performance Contracts (EPC) are performance-based financing mechanisms adopted to increase energy efficiency and encourage renewable energy applications in the public sector. In this study, the economic efficiency of the solar power plant (SPP) established within the scope of EPC on the campus of Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University was examined with a regression-based analysis. In the model, the effects of parameters such as solar radiation, investment cost and electricity sales price on unit production cost were evaluated; the multiple linear regression model created was tested by comparing with real production data. The model outputs provided the opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of system performance by revealing the difference between the predicted and realized production values. The study reveals the contribution of EPC applications to the economic feasibility of renewable energy investments in public institutions in Türkiye with concrete data; and provides an analytical basis for decision makers to direct energy policies. The novelty of this study lies in integrating a regression-based quantitative model with real operational data to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of an EPC-based solar power plant in Türkiye's public sector, while also introducing a unique comparative framework for planned, predicted, and actual energy production outcomes.