Characterizing Risks for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires in the Great Plains

Wildfire activity has increased across the Great Plains in recent decades, raising concerns about the effectiveness and safety of prescribed fire as a land management tool. This study analyzes wildfire records from 1992 to 2020 to assess spatiotemporal patterns in wildfire risk and evaluate the role of prescribed fires. Results show a threefold increase in both wildfire frequency and area burned, with fire size increasing from east to west and frequency rising from north to south. Seasonal fire activity has shifted earlier in the year, especially in northern and high-elevation states. Drought severity, measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, explained over half of the interannual variation in area burned, while grass curing accounted for 60% of monthly wildfire activity in grasslands. Prescribed fire had limited correlation with wildfire occurrence in spring but was associated with reduced wildfire activity in the following summer. The ratio of wildfire area burned to total area burned (dominated by prescribed fires) declined from over 20% in early March to below 1% by early April. These findings highlight the need for integrated risk assessment tools that account for long-term, mid-term, and short-term factors and support more effective fire management decisions across fire-prone landscapes.