Rising wildfire risks in Europe fuelled by global warming

Recent extreme wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the accelerating impacts of climate change. Assessing the socioeconomic impacts of wildfires is challenging due to uncertainties in risk drivers and observational records. Here, we implement a high-resolution data modelling framework to quantify fire season length, population exposure to fire weather, and wildfire economic damage in Europe for a range of global warming scenarios. Climate change is expected to lengthen the fire season across Europe, particularly in southern regions already prone to fire-conducive weather. While the south already faces extended periods of high fire danger, population in central and northern Europe will be increasingly exposed to adverse fire weather conditions. Present direct wildfire damages of €2.4 billion per year could nearly double with warming of 3°C or more. Mediterranean regions will bear the highest economic burden, with annual maximum damages reaching 5–10% of their regional economy. Our findings advocate for stringent climate mitigation, fire-resistant ecosystems, and resilient communities near fire-prone areas.