An Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Northern Rockies Ecoregion and Proposed Climate Refugia in the Yaak River Watershed, USA

The 8.19M ha Northern Rockies Ecoregion (NRE) of western Montana, northeastern Washington, and northern Idaho, USA, includes the 159,822 Yaak River Watershed (YRW) in northwest Montana, a proposed climate refugium. Regional climate projections show the NRE heating up, experiencing reduced summer precipitation, lowered spring snowpack, and increased wildfires, especially under a very high emissions pathway. Large-scale conservation proposals have stalled for decades, in part, due to the lack of an integrated approach to conservation target setting (e.g., 30% protected by 2030, 50% by 2050) that simultaneously addresses climate change planning and especially wildfire risk reduction. We conducted a comprehensive ecoregional conservation assessment that showed overall protection levels were quite low in the NRE (2.2% in GAP 1 or 2) and even lower in the YRW (1% of national forests, the USDA Forest Service manages most of the area). Approximately 32% of NRE forests are mature but only 2.4% is protected (GAP 1 or 2) with just 0.25% of mature forests protected within the YRW. Of the 8 focal forest species examined, habitat protection for all of them were well-below conservation targets with only wolverine (Gulo gulo) meeting the targets if roadless areas were better protected. Most (~75%) Forest Service fuel reduction treatments were >1 km from structures despite congressional funds aimed at the wildland-urban interface/intermix. Increased roadless area protections would close the lower bound (30%) conservation target for most ecosystem types, mature forests, and focal species but fall short of higher targets. We recommend coupling conservation targets with strategic investments in fuel reductions aimed at the innermost buffer around structures, while reducing logging and roadbuilding in priority areas.