Effects of Multi-Scenario Land Use Change on the Water Con-Servation in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China: A Case Study of Bashang Region, Zhangjiakou City

Water resource management is crucial for sustainable agricultural and ecological development, particularly in regions with complex land use patterns and sensitive eco-systems. The Bashang region of Zhangjiakou city, located in the agropastoral ecotone of northern China, is an ecologically fragile area undergoing significant land use and climate changes. Despite the importance of understanding the interplay between land use, climate change, and water conservation, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their combined effects on regional water resources. This study addresses this gap by investigating the spatiotemporal changes in water yield (WY) and water conservation capacity (WCC) under different land use and climate scenarios for the year 2035. The research employs the FLUS model to predict future land use and the InVEST model to estimate WY and WCC under Natural Development Scenario (NDS), Agricultural Production Scenario (APS), Ecological protection Scenario (EPS) and Land Planning Scenario (LPS). The results reveal that WCC is primarily influenced by precipitation, land use, and topography. The study finds that scenarios focusing on ecological protection and land use optimization, such as the EPS and LPS, significantly enhance water conservation capacity. Notably, the LPS scenario, which limits urban expansion and increases ecological land, provides the best balance between water yield and conservation. The findings highlight the need for integrated approaches to land use and water resource management, particularly in agro-pastoral transitional zones. The unique contribution of this research lies in its comprehensive modeling approach, combining land use, climate data, and water resource analysis, which provides valuable insights for sustainable land and water management strategies.