Unraveling Rising Mortality: Statistical Insights from Japan and International Comparisons

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan has experienced a significant rise in mortality, with excess deaths surpassing historical projections. Statistical data indicate a sharp increase in mortality rates from 2021 onward, attributed to COVID-19, aging demographics, cardiovascular diseases, and malignancies. Preliminary 2024 data suggest continued excess mortality, fueling public debate. This review analyzes national and municipal mortality trends using official Japanese statistics and comparative data from South Korea, the U.S., and the EU. Findings reveal a sharp mortality rise post-2021 in Japan and South Korea, while Western nations experienced peak deaths in 2020, followed by declines. The review explores contributing factors, including potential vaccine-related adverse effects, declining healthcare access, pandemic-induced stress, and demographic shifts. Notably, older adults’ reluctance to seek medical care led to delayed diagnoses, treatment interruptions, and preventable deaths. Although some argue that declining COVID-19 vaccination rates in 2023 may have contributed to rising mortality in 2024, available data suggest a multifactorial causation. Japan’s rapidly aging population, coupled with increasing mortality and declining birth rates, presents profound social and economic challenges. A nuanced approach, avoiding simplistic causal claims, is crucial for understanding these trends. This review highlights the need for a sustainable societal framework to address demographic shifts and improve healthcare resilience. Future pandemic strategies must balance infection control measures with mitigating unintended health consequences to ensure a more adaptive and effective public health response.