Unraveling Rising Mortality: Statistical Insights from Japan and International Comparisons

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality trends in Japan have garnered significant attention, particularly due to the rise in excess mortality—the difference between observed and expected deaths based on historical data. Statistical reports indicate a notable increase in mortality since 2021, attributed to COVID-19, senility, cardiovascular diseases, and malignancies. Recent 2024 mortality data suggest a continued upward trend, prompting discussions on social media and in public discourse.This article verifies nationwide and municipal-level mortality trends in Japan using official Vital Statistics data and preliminary figures for 2024. A line graph plotting Japan's annual mortality from 2015 to 2024 reveals a decline in 2020, followed by a sharp increase from 2021 onwards, persisting through 2024. Similarly, mortality trends in Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya show parallel patterns, with notable increases in 2024 where data are available.Comparative analysis with South Korea, using population statistics, reveals a similar post-2022 mortality surge. However, mortality trends in the European Union and the United States exhibited a different pattern: sharp increases in 2020 followed by declines from 2022 onward. This divergence underscores regional variations in pandemic impacts and responses.The recent surge in deaths has fueled debates regarding potential causes, including vaccine-related adverse effects, demographic shifts, healthcare system strains, and pandemic-related stressors. While some may argue that reduced vaccine uptake in 2023 contributed to increased mortality in 2024, COVID-19-related deaths alone cannot fully explain the observed trends.Given the multifactorial nature of mortality changes, simplistic causal conclusions should be avoided. Japan’s declining population, exacerbated by rising mortality and falling birth rates, poses profound social and economic challenges. Addressing these issues requires a sustainable societal model that anticipates and adapts to demographic shifts.