Long-term trends in the burden of alcoholic cardiomyopathy in China based on Global Burden of Disease 2021

Background Alcoholic cardiomyopathy remains an important cause of death from cardiovascular disease in China. This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends of alcohol cardiomyopathy (ACM) burden in China during 1990–2021. Methods The epidemiological data utilized in this investigation were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Temporal trends in ACM prevalence and mortality rates were analyzed through join-point regression modeling, with quantification of temporal changes expressed as average annual percentage change (AAPC) metrics. Simultaneously, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was implemented to evaluate the independent contributions of aging effects, temporal variations, and generational influences. Furthermore, we developed an extended autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) framework to project disease burden patterns through 2036, providing a 15-year forecast of epidemiological trends. Results The age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates in both sexes changed from 0.52 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.62) to 1.56 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.92) and from 0.05 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.12) to 0.10 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.15) per 100 000 people in China from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs) rate, years lived with disability(YLDs) rate and years of life lost(YLL ) rate is increasing from 1990 to 2021. AAPC in age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates for ACM in China were 3.70 (95% CI: 3.50, 3.90), and 1.90 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.10). The effects of age, period, and cohort on prevalence and mortality rates differed. Conclusions The increasing age-standardized prevalence, mortality, DALYs, YLDs and YLL rates is gradually increasing between 1990 and 2021 in China. The burden of ACM in China will be a major public health challenge, given the country’s large population base and aging population.