Simulation-Based Prediction of Office Buildings Energy Performance Under RCP Scenarios Across All U.S. Climate Zones

Buildings account for a significant portion of global energy consumption and are increasingly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including rising greenhouse gas emissions and shifting weather patterns. These disruptions significantly impact energy demand, necessitating proactive measures to ensure buildings remain functional, sustainable, and energy efficient. This study analyzes the long-term effects of climate change on building energy performance across U.S. climate zones using future scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions) for the years 2050, and 2080. Leveraging U.S. Department of Energy prototype models and simulation-based methods in Energy Plus software, energy demand dynamics in commercial buildings under varying climate conditions are assessed. The findings reveal that medium-sized office buildings are the most vulnerable to climate change, with an average EUI increase of 12.5% by 2080 under RCP 8.5, compared to a 7.4% rise for large office buildings and a slight decline of 2.5% for small office buildings. Hot and humid cities such as Miami, FL, experience the highest increases, with EUI projected to rise by 21.2% for medium offices, while colder regions like Fairbanks, AK, show reductions of up to 18.2% due to decreasing heating demands. These results underscore the urgent need for climate-compatible building design strategies, particularly in high-risk areas. Passive design solutions can significantly mitigate cooling energy demands and enhance overall efficiency. As climate change intensifies, integrating resilience-focused policies will safeguard energy systems and ensure long-term occupant comfort.