Does Government Trust Matter?: The Effectiveness of Policy Response in the Health-Disaster Era

Background/Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked the need for appropriate government response in health-disaster situations worldwide. This study analyzes the impact of the government's non-pharmaceutical measures on the number of deaths from COVID-19. In particular, it further analyzes how trust in the government moderates government measures. Through this analysis, this study aims to explore the government’s appropriate role in overcoming future health disasters by understanding the effectiveness of government measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study collected and analyzed national data provided by various international organizations for countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). To estimate the relationship between various policy measures and COVID-19 related deaths, it employed panel data analysis using random effects, since only three-year data, ranging from 2020 to 2022, were utilized. Results: The main findings of this study are as follows. First, suppression measures, which included strong-intensity measures, directly affected the decrease in the number of total deaths. However, mitigation measures, which consisted of weak-intensity measures, directly affected the increase in the number of deaths. Second, trust in government directly influenced the decrease in the number of deaths. Finally, the moderating effect of government trust on the suppression measures was not tested, but the moderating effect on the mitigation measures was confirmed. Conclusions: This study presents the following implications. First, the government's non-pharmaceutical measures in times of pandemic need to consider various environmental factors of the country. Second, trust in the government can be an important environmental condition in overcoming health-disaster situations. In particular, trust in the government weakens the side effects that can be caused by government measures. Third, suppression methods that directly affect people's movement and daily life had a positive effect on the decrease in the total number of deaths, and the effectiveness of these measures to overcome the health-disaster situation was confirmed.