Does Government Trust Matter? The Effectiveness of Policy Responses in the Health-Disaster Era

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked the need for appropriate government responses in health-disaster situations worldwide. This study analyzes the impact of governments’ non-pharmaceutical measures on the number of deaths from COVID-19. In particular, it further analyzes how trust in government moderates government measures. Through this analysis, this study aims to explore the government’s appropriate role in overcoming future health disasters by understanding the effectiveness of government measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study collected and analyzed national data provided by various international organizations for countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). To estimate the relationship between various policy measures and COVID-19 related deaths, it employed panel data analysis using random effects, since only three years of data, ranging from 2020 to 2022, were utilized. Results: The main findings of this study are as follows. First, suppression measures which include measures that place relatively stronger restrictions on people’s behavior were directly related to decreases in the number of total deaths. However, mitigation measures which consisted of weak-intensity measures were directly related to increases in the number of deaths. Second, higher levels of trust in government were directly related to decreased numbers of deaths. Finally, the moderating effect of government trust on suppression measures was not tested, but the moderating effect on mitigation measures was confirmed. Conclusions: This study presents the following implications. First, governments’ non-pharmaceutical measures in times of pandemic need to consider various environmental factors of the country. Second, trust in government can be an important environmental condition in overcoming health-disaster situations. In particular, trust in government weakens the side effects that can be caused by government measures. Third, suppression methods that directly affect people’s movement and daily life had a positive association with decreases in the number of total deaths, and the correlations of these measures in overcoming the health-disaster situation were confirmed.