Intensity-Based Quantification of Land Use Dynamics in Biodiversity Hotspot Area of Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

Although enriched biodiversity and ecological services, most of Ethiopia’s protected areas currently operate at minimum functionality status with terrible biodiversity loss due to anthropogenic‑driven land use change(LUC) and degradation. Despite efforts made to quantify a few aspects, there is no full information regarding the entire LUC patterns and processes which are vital for better understanding and feasible interventions. This study quantified the LUC characteristics compressively at interval, category and transition levels(1986 to 2002 and 2002 to 2020) in Nechsar National Park(NNP) using intensity analysis model, based on the area coverage data of six land types extracted from Landsat imageries. Results revealed ≈78% of the study area exhibited LUC, of which 50.41% was net change during the last 34 years. The change intensity was faster(1.8%) in 2nd time interval than 1st (1.7%). Besides >82% persistent land, net gain was observed in bush/shrub(147%), cultivated(127%) and water(15%) at the cost of 39%(10435ha) net loss from woodland, forest and grassland. The most active gain of cultivated and bush/shrub was intensively targeted forest and woodland, respectively, and avoided others. Beyond losing ≈50% of land, woodland followed by forest experienced the most active loss, profoundly attributed to the intensiveness of the drivers rather than area proportion, while its gain was dormant. Generally, the study indicates NNP has been under serious transition processes with negative implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. It also provides adequate evidence regarding stationarities, highly vulnerable ecosystems and targeted interventions to sustain and scale up the parks’ functionality.