Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urban Green Spaces and Climatic Vulnerability of Togolese Cities in the Context of Rapid Urbanisation: The Case of Lome and Kara

In Togo, the cities of Lomé and Kara are undergoing rapid urbanisation driven by strong population growth and the expansion of urban built-up areas, leading to significant reductions in urban green spaces (UGSs). UGSs are vital for climate regulation and human well-being by mitigating urban heat, improving air quality, and supporting mental health. This urban expansion directly replaces vegetated areas with impervious surfaces, diminishing UGS and their associated ecosystem services. Consequently, climatic vulnerability has increased, highlighting the need for sustainable urban development and UGS conservation. This study examines UGS spatiotemporal dynamics using Landsat imagery from 1988, 2000, 2012, and 2022, applying a supervised image classification approach with the maximum likelihood algorithm. Post-classification change detection quantified UGS loss. Additionally, vulnerability models for 2022, 2060, and 2100 were developed using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2.45 and SSP 5.85) and a multifactorial modelling approach. The results reveal a decline in UGSs from 85.98% to 40.78% in Lomé and from 93.99% to 36.68% in Kara between 1988 and 2022, primarily due to urbanisation. Vulnerable zones, currently in UGSs, risk disappearance by 2060–2100, exacerbating climate risks. Urgent measures are needed, including conservation policies, UGS creation, and community awareness to promote urban sustainability.