Risk Assessment for Climate Justice in Milan: Definition of GIS-Based Model for Mapping Green Infrastructure, Urban Heat Islands and Their Impact on Vulnerable Age Groups

In a world of rapid urbanisation and increasing global warming, Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) are posing as a hazard to public health, especially for vulnerable age groups. Given Milan's high urbanisation and scattered green infrastructure, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) present a successful way to reduce the UHI effects. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can help the targeted implementation and planning of NBS in urban areas. This research project develops a GIS-based model to overlap data about green infrastructure, UHI and density of vulnerable age groups in Milan. The aim is to assess the heat risk of urban areas with a high vulnerable population density in 2020 and 2030. A comprehensive literature review highlights the benefits and challenges of NBS. Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps using remote sensing are developed to identify spatial patterns of heat intensity in Milan on the hottest day measured in 2024 (31st of July). These are overlaid on demographic maps, derived from Nuclei di Identità Locale (NIL), to highlight the areas where vulnerable groups (children between 0 and 5 years old and elderly over 65 years old) are most at risk. The analysis identifies UHI hotspots in Milan, characterized by high temperatures (more than Milan’s average LST of 40.81°C), low vegetation cover, and vulnerable population.