Short-Term Forecasting of Total Aggregate Demand in Uncontrolled Residential Charging with Electric Vehicles Using Artificial Neural Networks

Electric vehicles are gaining attention and being adopted by new users every day. Their widespread use creates a new scenario and challenge for the energy system due to the high energy storage demands they generate. Forecasting these loads using artificial neural networks has proven to be an efficient way of solving time series problems. This study employs a multilayer perceptron network with backpropagation training and Bayesian regularisation to enhance generalisation and minimise overfitting errors. The research aggregates real consumption data from 200 households and 348 electric vehicles. The developed method was validated using MAPE, which resulted in errors below 6%. Short-term forecasts were made across the four seasons, predicting the total aggregate demand of households and vehicles for the next 24 h. The methodology produced significant and relevant results for this problem using hybrid training, a few-neuron architecture, deep learning, fast convergence, and low computational cost, with potential for real-world application. The results support the electrical power system by optimising these loads, reducing costs and energy generation, and preparing a new scenario for EV penetration rates.