Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A New York state modelling study

This article has been Reviewed by the following groups

Read the full article

Abstract

No abstract available

Article activity feed

  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All data were compiled in Matlab (Mathworks) and prepared with custom-built software.
    Matlab
    suggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)
    Figures were edited in Adobe Illustrator (Adobe).
    Adobe Illustrator
    suggested: (Adobe Illustrator, RRID:SCR_010279)

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This model has a number of limitations. First, the model relies on data obtained from the NYSDOH, including public reports and press conferences. These data likely have errors in their estimations; thus, the model projections may overestimate or underestimate true epidemiological characteristics. Additionally, these data do not account for the relative lack in testing that occurred during the initial period of the NYS outbreak. As a result, the reported confirmed cases likely are under representative, which may influence the model towards higher infectivity. Second, a fixed parameter approach was chosen for a number of variables including average incubation period (γ−1), average time to hospitalization (δ−1), latency to non-hospitalized quarantine (θ−1), and the effective rate of undocumented infections (ν; see Supplementary Methods; Table S1). The values of these parameters were chosen based on literature; however, in reality they likely change over time. Third, the seasonal variability SARS-CoV-2 transmission was modelled after non-SARS-CoV-2 HCoV seasonal variability. This assumption was conservatively weighted because the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to temperature and humidity is not yet known (see Methods); therefore, the true seasonal variability of SARS-CoV-2 may differ from the model’s predictions. Lastly, pharmaceutical interventions, such as vaccines and therapeutic and prophylactic medications were not included in this model. It is unknown when these pha...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.