Quantifying contact patterns in response to COVID-19 public health measures in Canada
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Abstract
Background
A variety of public health measures have been implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada to reduce contact between individuals. The objective of this study was to provide empirical contact pattern data to evaluate the impact of public health measures, the degree to which social contacts rebounded to normal levels, as well as direct public health efforts toward age- and location-specific settings.
Methods
Four population-based cross-sectional surveys were administered to members of a paid panel representative of Canadian adults by age, gender, official language, and region of residence during May (Survey 1), July (Survey 2), September (Survey 3), and December (Survey 4) 2020. A total of 4981 (Survey 1), 2493 (Survey 2), 2495 (Survey 3), and 2491 (Survey 4) respondents provided information about the age and setting for each direct contact made in a 24-h period. Contact matrices were constructed and contacts for those under the age of 18 years imputed. The next generation matrix approach was used to estimate the reproduction number (R t ) for each survey. Respondents with children under 18 years estimated the number of contacts their children made in school and extracurricular settings.
Results
Estimated R t values were 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29–0.69) for May, 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29–0.68) for July, 1.06 (95% CI: 0.63–1.52) for September, and 0.81 (0.47–1.17) for December. The highest proportion of reported contacts occurred within the home (51.3% in May), in ‘other’ locations (49.2% in July) and at work (66.3 and 65.4% in September and December). Respondents with children reported an average of 22.7 (95% CI: 21.1–24.3) (September) and 19.0 (95% CI 17.7–20.4) (December) contacts at school per day per child in attendance.
Conclusion
The skewed distribution of reported contacts toward workplace settings in September and December combined with the number of reported school-related contacts suggest that these settings represent important opportunities for transmission emphasizing the need to support and ensure infection control procedures in both workplaces and schools.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.11.21253301: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources All data were analysed using RStudio Version 1.2.5033 (21). RStudiosuggested: (RStudio, RRID:SCR_000432)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations: The inherent risk in all surveys of being unrepresentative of the target population may have been amplified by the online nature of the survey which limited participation to those who use the Internet. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.11.21253301: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources All data were analysed using RStudio Version 1.2.5033 (21). RStudiosuggested: (RStudio, RRID:SCR_000432)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations: The inherent risk in all surveys of being unrepresentative of the target population may have been amplified by the online nature of the survey which limited participation to those who use the Internet. Self-reporting of behaviours introduced the potential for recall and response bias. Social desirability bias carries with it the risk of underestimating the true number of total contacts as well as contacts in socially undesirable settings. These data provide no information about mitigation measures such as mask use associated with each contact. The results provide evidence that the POLYMOD UK (6) study is an imperfect representation of contact patterns in the Canadian population, however in the absence of published pre-pandemic contact data for Canada, it is a commonly used comparator. Finally, this analysis is based on contacts across Canada and does not account for any geographic variation in the number of contacts across regions potentially masking local differences.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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