COVID-19 epidemic outside China: 34 founders and exponential growth

  1. Yi Li
  2. Meng Liang
  3. Xianhong Yin
  4. Xiaoyu Liu
  5. Meng Hao
  6. Zixin Hu
  7. Yi Wang
  8. Li Jin

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Abstract

COVID-19 raised tension both within China and internationally. Here, we used mathematical modeling to predict the trend of patient diagnosis outside China in future, with the aim of easing anxiety regarding the emergent situation. According to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. Daily diagnosis numbers from countries outside China were downloaded from WHO situation reports. The data used for this analysis were collected from January 21, 2020 and currently end at February 28, 2020. A simple regression model was developed based on these numbers, as follows: [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the total diagnosed patient till the i-th day and t=1 at February 1, 2020. Based on this model, we estimate that there were approximately 34 undetected founder patients at the beginning of the spread of COVID-19 outside China. The global trend was approximately exponential, with an increase rate of 10-fold every 19 days. Through establishment of this model, we call for worldwide strong public health actions, with reference to the experiences learned from China and Singapore.

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  1. Version published to 10.1136/jim-2020-001491
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819 on medRxiv