The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

  1. Matteo Chinazzi
  2. Jessica T. Davis
  3. Marco Ajelli
  4. Corrado Gioannini
  5. Maria Litvinova
  6. Stefano Merler
  7. Ana Pastore y Piontti
  8. Kunpeng Mu
  9. Luca Rossi
  10. Kaiyuan Sun
  11. Cécile Viboud
  12. Xinyue Xiong
  13. Hongjie Yu
  14. M. Elizabeth Halloran
  15. Ira M. Longini
  16. Alessandro Vespignani

Reviewed by

Read the full article See related articles

Listed in

Log in to save this article

Abstract

In response to global dispersion of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), quarantine measures have been implemented around the world. To understand how travel and quarantine influence the dynamics of the spread of this novel human virus, Chinazzi et al. applied a global metapopulation disease transmission model to epidemiological data from China. They concluded that the travel quarantine introduced in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 only delayed epidemic progression by 3 to 5 days within China, but international travel restrictions did help to slow spread elsewhere in the world until mid-February. Their results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic.

Science , this issue p. 395

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1126/science.aba9757
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261v1 on medRxiv