Temporal and Phylodynamic analyses of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

  1. Tony Wawina-Bokalanga
  2. Pierre Akilimali
  3. Jonathan Pekar
  4. Pascal Adroba
  5. Adrienne Amuri-Aziza
  6. Eddy Kinganda Lusamaki
  7. Daan Jansen
  8. Bernardo Gutierrez
  9. Ciara Judge
  10. Olga Ntumba-Tshitenge
  11. Joshua Quick
  12. Diallo Amadou Mouctar
  13. Sam AJ Wilkinson
  14. Jean-Claude Makangara-Cigolo
  15. Marcel Lola-Loway
  16. John O OTSHUDIEMA
  17. Nicksy Gumede
  18. Felix Mulangu
  19. Justus Nsio
  20. Prince Akil-Bandali
  21. Jepsy Yango
  22. Dav M. Ebengo
  23. Tania Bishola Tshitenge
  24. Cris Kacita
  25. Joelle Ngalula-Mudiayi
  26. Mathias Mossoko
  27. Pauline-Chloe Musuamba-Kayembe
  28. Lievin Tibasima-Dhesa
  29. Princesse Paku-Tshambu
  30. Sabue Mulangu
  31. Pius Zakayi KABUTU
  32. Olivier Tshiani-Mbaya
  33. Dieudonne Mvumbi Makaba
  34. Marie-Roseline Belizaire
  35. Anne W. Rimoin
  36. Lorenzo Subissi
  37. Martine Peeters
  38. Ahidjo Ayouba
  39. Mosoka Papa Fallah
  40. Kevin K. Arien
  41. Sofonias K. Tessema
  42. David Blazes
  43. Nicholas James Loman
  44. Caroline James Colijn
  45. Olivier le Polain de Waroux
  46. Joseph L.H Tsui
  47. Cathal Mills
  48. Ellie Bourgikos
  49. Samuel V. Scarpino
  50. Aine O'Toole
  51. Renny Doig
  52. Guy Baele
  53. Nohelia Navarrete
  54. Laurens Liesenborghs
  55. Miles W Carroll
  56. Georges Mvumbi Lelo
  57. Daniel Mukadi-Bamuleka
  58. Piet Maes
  59. Christian Ngandu
  60. Jason Kindrachuk
  61. Dieudonne Mwamba
  62. Jean-Jacques Tamfum Muyembe
  63. Steve Ahuka-Mundeke
  64. Koen Vercauteren
  65. Moritz U. G. Kraemer
  66. Andrew Rambaut
  67. Mbala Placide
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Abstract

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a major outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Orthoebolavirus bundibugyoense (Bundibugyo virus), which was declared on May 15, 2026. To investigate the timing of emergence and early transmission, we generated near full length Bundibugyo virus genomes from 686 PCR-confirmed individuals across 22 health zones. We estimated the time of emergence as late February 2026 (95% highest posterior density interval [HPDI]: January 21 and March 25, 2026) and an evolutionary rate of 8.7X10-4 substitutions per site per year (95% HPDI: 7.6 and 9.9X10-4), with no evidence of mutations associated with rapidly growing lineages.

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  1. Version published to 10.64898/2026.10.07.26365001 on medRxiv