A minimal model of Norway spruce - bark beetle outbreak dynamics

Bark beetles pose a growing threat to coniferous forests worldwide, with outbreaks increasingly linked to environmental stress and host vulnerability. Most mechanistic models focus on equilibrium states, neglecting the dynamical nature of outbreaks triggered by environmental perturbations. Using Ips typographus as focal species, we present a minimal model capturing key processes such as threshold-driven mass attacks, with parameters adaptable to different environmental conditions. Under current conditions, the model predicts a stable endemic state that is reactive, meaning environmental shocks trigger isolated, transient outbreaks. Under altered conditions, reflecting potential climate change scenarios, the system undergoes a regime shift, producing recurrent outbreaks that arise spontaneously from insect–host feedbacks. Finally, we examine repeated environmental disturbances and forest management, showing that the effectiveness of outbreak mitigation depends on the interplay between management frequency and intensity. Overall, we provide a mechanistic framework for understanding outbreak dynamics and guiding management strategies under changing environmental conditions.