Spatial configuration and climatic drivers of post-infestation resilience in Honduran pine forests.

Pine forests in Honduras are increasingly affected by extreme weather events, land use change, and bark beetle outbreaks, primarily caused by Dendroctonus frontalis , posing significant challenges to ecosystem resilience. This study evaluates how spatial configuration and climatic conditions interact with forest structure, species composition, and regeneration dynamics to shape post-infestation recovery. We combined field-based forest inventories with satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI, GCI, ARVI) to assess recovery patterns across twenty-seven pine forest patches differing in size and shape. Environmental variables, including precipitation and elevation, were integrated to identify the main drivers of post-disturbance resilience. Our results indicate that precipitation and elevation are the strongest climatic drivers of vegetation recovery, while patch shape plays a central role in determining structural and compositional trajectories. Elongated patches, despite experiencing higher initial mortality, exhibited greater regeneration potential of Pinus species, likely due to increased light availability and reduced competition. In contrast, compact patches retained higher basal area, greater canopy continuity, and a higher relative abundance of broadleaf associates such as Quercus and Liquidambar . Species diversity was consistently higher in control plots, highlighting the contribution of non-pine species to long-term structural stability. By integrating spectral, structural, and compositional indicators, this study demonstrates that spatial configuration is a key determinant of forest resilience following bark beetle infestation in Central America. These findings underscore the importance of adaptive management strategies that consider patch geometry, climatic variability, and multispecies regeneration to enhance the resilience of pine-dominated landscapes under increasing environmental change.