Analysis of the Temporal Dynamics of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in Ecuador: Emergency Patterns and Associations Epidemiological (1988-2024)
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Summary
This study analyzes the temporal dynamics and possible epidemiological interactions of three arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in Ecuador: den-gue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), during the period 1988-2024.
Using national epidemiological data, we examined incidence patterns, potential associations between these diseases, and their relationship with temporal factors. The results reveal cyclical patterns of dengue, with established endemicity and notable epidemic peaks (1994, 2000, 2015, 2024), with transmission progressively expanding to ecologically diverse regions. Zika and chikungunya showed more recent explosive introductions, with significant outbreaks concentrated in 2015–2017, followed by a dramatic decline. The analysis suggests a complex epidemiological interaction, where the emergence of one arbovirus seems to coincide with changes in the incidence of another. Population immunity, vector dynamics influenced by socioecological and climatic factors, and public health responses likely modulate these patterns. This study underscores the need for integrated surveillance and adaptive control strategies for these arboviruses in Ecuador.
