Spatio-temporal dynamics of leptospirosis in Brazil between 2010 and 2023: identifying high-risk regions and gender-specific patterns
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Background
Leptospirosis is a globally neglected zoonotic disease with height-ened transmission in tropical regions. Brazil bears a disproportionate burden within Latin America, driven primarily by socio-economic vulnerability, urban infrastructure deficiencies, occupational exposure and hydrological factors such as rainfall and flooding. Despite its importance, the spatio-temporal patterns of leptospirosis across Brazil’s diverse regions and populations remain poorly under-stood. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and gender-specific patterns of leptospirosis risk in Brazil from 2010 to 2023.
Methods
We conducted a national-level retrospective analysis using con-firmed leptospirosis case and population data aggregated at the microregional level ( n = 558) from Brazil’s SINAN and DATASUS systems. Descriptive statis-tics were used to assess overall trends. Spatio-temporal clusters were identified using spatio-temporal scan statistics with a discrete Poisson model. Bayesian spatio-temporal models were then used to estimate annual relative risks ( RR ) and 95% credible intervals across microregions for total, male, and female popu-lations. An interactive dashboard was developed to facilitate result dissemination.
Results
A total of 48,190 cases were reported between 2010 and 2023, with males accounting for 80.1%. Significant interannual variation was observed, with peaks in 2011 and 2018 and a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. Clus-ter analysis revealed 30 high-risk areas, primarily located in the Acre state, and southern Brazil. RR estimates confirmed persistent endemicity in these regions, with some microregions exceeding RR > 20 in multiple years. Gender-specific analyses revealed distinct patterns with several microregions demonstrating di-verging trends between genders. Temporal and geographic RR variation was visualized through interactive maps and trend plots.
Interpretation
This study reveals substantial spatial heterogeneity and gen-der disparities in leptospirosis risk across Brazil. Persistent high-risk areas, partic-ularly in the Amazon Basin and southern states, highlight the need for long-term, location-specific public health interventions. The divergence in male and female risk trajectories underscores the importance of gender-disaggregated surveillance and targeted prevention strategies. Integrating high-resolution spatio-temporal modeling with interactive tools can support more equitable and data-driven dis-ease control in Brazil and similar endemic settings.
