Predicting the responses of the world's bird species to increases in agricultural production

The intensification and expansion of croplands are among the greatest threats to biodiversity, but the likely responses to these changes remain unknown for most species. Using data on responses of 862 bird species to changes in yields of arable crops, we extrapolate vulnerability to agriculture for the world's other terrestrial birds based on their traits and taxonomy. We estimate that 74-78% of terrestrial bird species globally suffer population declines where natural habitats are replaced by croplands, and that over half cannot persist in cropland at even the lowest current yields. Past impacts of agriculture on birds have been greatest in the tropics, particularly in coastal forest regions of Central and South America and West Africa and in southern and South-East Asia. Using these estimates to model the impacts of future scenarios of agricultural change, we find that continuing current rates of cropland expansion and yield increases (i.e. extrapolating 'business-as-usual' trends to 2050) is expected to have more negative impacts on birds (particularly in Central and South America, Eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and South and East Asia) than a potential alternative of a targeted strategy of closing yield gaps while limiting cropland expansion. However, we also identify biodiverse regions of the world where closing yield gaps may have more severe impacts on birds than business-as-usual, such as the Pampas of South America and parts of the Sahel region in West Africa. The strategy of least impact for a particular area can be predicted from the response characteristics of the communities of species present there, offering opportunities to take account of regional context for designing less damaging global food production systems.