The paradoxical impact of drought on West Nile virus risk: insights from long-term ecological data

Mosquito-borne diseases are deeply embedded within ecological communities, with environmental changes – particularly climate change – shaping their dynamics. Increasingly intesense droughts across the globe have profound implications for the transmission of these diseases, as drought conditions can alter mosquito breeding habitats, host-seeking behaviors, and mosquito-host contact rates. To quantify the effect of drought on disease transmission, we use West Nile virus (WNV) as a model system and leverage a robust mosquito and virus dataset consisting of over 500,000 trap nights collected from 2010-2023, spanning a historic drought period followed by atmospheric rivers. We pair this surveillance dataset with a novel modeling approach that incorporates monthly changes in bird host community competence, along with drought conditions, to estimate the effect of drought severity on WNV risk using panel regression models. Our results show that while drought decreases mosquito abundances, it paradoxically increases WNV infection rates. This counterintuitive pattern likely stems from reduced water availability, which concentrates mosquitos and pathogen-amplifying bird hosts around limited water sources, thereby increasing disease transmission risk. However, the magnitude of the effect depends critically on mosquito species, suggesting species-specific behavioral traits are key to understanding the effect of drought on mosquito-borne disease risk across real landscapes.