Global coral genomic vulnerability explains recent reef losses

The dramatic decline of reef-building corals calls for a better understanding of coral adaptation to ocean warming. Here, we characterized genetic diversity of the widespread genus Acropora by building a genomic database of 595 coral samples from different oceanic regions—from the Great Barrier Reef to the Persian Gulf. Through genome-environment associations, we found that different Acropora species showed parallel evolutionary signals of heat-adaptation in the same genomic regions, pointing to genes associated with molecular heat shock responses and symbiosis. We then projected the present and the predicted future distribution of heat-adapted genotypes across reefs worldwide. Reefs projected with low frequency of heat-adapted genotypes display higher rates of Acropora decline, indicating a potential genomic vulnerability to heat exposure. Our projections also suggest a transition where heat-adapted genotypes will spread at least until 2040. However, this transition will likely involve mass mortality of entire non-adapted populations and a consequent erosion of Acropora genetic diversity. This genetic diversity loss could hinder the capacity of Acropora to adapt to the more extreme heatwaves projected beyond 2040. Genomic vulnerability and genetic diversity loss estimates can be used to reassess which coral reefs are at risk and their conservation.