Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions

Future oceans are predicted to favor groups like sponges over calcifying taxa such as scleractinian corals. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining the development of coral reef communities in experimental mesocosms over 23 months. 85 sponge species among the calcifying class Calcarea (~33%), and non-calcifying Demospongiae (~60%) and Homoscleromorpha (<10%) recruited to warming (+2°C), acidification (-0.2 pH), and warming+acidification (+2°C, -0.2 pH) future ocean treatments. The diversity of calcifying sponges was unimpacted across any treatment, whereas non-calcifying classes showed greatest declines. 57-66% of demosponges decreased under future ocean conditions, and homoscleromorphs were entirely absent from acidified treatments. Through the sponge loop, sponges play a fundamental role in coral reef nutrient cycling, and altered coral reef community composition likely has functional consequences. This study challenges the assumption that non-calcifying species are less impacted and highlights the importance of understanding how community composition may alter ecosystem functioning under future ocean conditions.