Impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics

  1. Igor Nesteruk

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Abstract

Full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, which began on February 24, 2022, caused an unprecedented number of refugees, which in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could increase the number of patients. The recent pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Poland, Germany and in the whole world was compared with the previous epidemic waves simulated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure. Since before the war the estimation of the number of infectious persons per capita in Ukraine 3.6 times exceeded the global figure, the increase of the number the new cases and the pandemic duration is expected. From the beginning of March 2022 the increase of the averaged number of new cases in Germany and worldwide is visible.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.26.22272979: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.03.26.22272979v1 on medRxiv