Inverse proportionality between height and duration of epidemic peaks not observed for the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan

  1. Toshihisa Tomie

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Abstract

The height of the epidemic peaks varied ten-fold, but the duration was almost constant independent of the peak height in the six times COVID-19 epidemics in Japan over the past two years. The observed relation between the peak height and duration contradicts the inverse proportionality, which is the essential conclusion derived from mathematical models for infectious diseases. We found that the peak height was inversely proportional to the number of rhinovirus patients. The literature has revealed the mechanism behind our found power of rhinovirus suppressing COVID-19. We discuss that the critical flaw of current mathematical models originates in the absence of the 0th power term of the number of infected people in the Kermack and McKendrick equation.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2022.03.23.22272840: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2022.03.23.22272840 on medRxiv