Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Kyrgyzstan
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Abstract
Objectives
In December 2020, an unprecedented vaccination programme to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic was initiated worldwide. However, the vaccine provision is currently insufficient for most countries to vaccinate their entire eligible population, so it is essential to develop the most efficient vaccination strategies. COVID-19 disease severity and mortality vary by age, therefore age-dependent vaccination strategies must be developed.
Study design/Methods
Here, we use an age-dependent SIERS (susceptible–infected–exposed–recovered–susceptible) deterministic model to compare four hypothetical age-dependent vaccination strategies and their potential impact on the COVID-19 epidemic in Kyrgyzstan.
Results
Over the short-term (until March 2022), a vaccination rollout strategy focussed on high-risk groups (aged >50 years) with some vaccination among high-incidence groups (aged 20–49 years) may decrease symptomatic cases and COVID-19-attributable deaths. However, there will be limited impact on the estimated overall number of COVID-19 cases with the relatively low coverage of high-incidence groups (15–25% based on current vaccine availability). Vaccination plus non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask wearing and social distancing, will further decrease COVID-19 incidence and mortality and may have an indirect impact on all-cause mortality.
Conclusions
Our results and other evidence suggest that vaccination is most effective in flattening the epidemic curve and reducing mortality if supported by NPIs. In the short-term, focussing on high-risk groups may reduce the burden on the health system and result in fewer deaths. However, the herd effect from delaying another peak may only be achieved by greater vaccination coverage in high-incidence groups.
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.21.21268200: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations: One of the major limitations of this work is that the model only accounted for the initial COVID-19 (“alpha”) variant, as at the time of the modelling the web-based application had no facility for projecting scenarios based on new variants of the virus. Accordingly, the actual effect on the epidemic and related health …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.21.21268200: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations: One of the major limitations of this work is that the model only accounted for the initial COVID-19 (“alpha”) variant, as at the time of the modelling the web-based application had no facility for projecting scenarios based on new variants of the virus. Accordingly, the actual effect on the epidemic and related health outcomes from a vaccination strategy may have different outcomes from that predicted depending on which variant(s) is prevalent in the country. The other limitation is that due to the limited data available for the Kyrgyz context, some of the key parameter values we used for the simulations were based on assumptions and estimates. As mentioned earlier, in such cases we applied either existing global data, proxy national data or we estimated the values in consultation with local experts.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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