Vaccines provide disproportional protection to the increased hospitalisation risk posed by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV2: a meta-analysis
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Abstract
Variants of SARS-CoV2 that achieved global dominance (Alpha and Delta) have been associated with increased hospitalisation risk. A quantification of this risk across studies is currently lacking for Delta. Furthermore, how risk for severe disease changes in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is important as the underlying risks determine public health impact. The surplus risk of Delta versus Alpha on hospitalisation was determined using random-effects meta-analysis. Infection with the Delta compared to the Alpha variant increased hospitalisation risk (unvaccinated: log HR 0.62, CI: 0.41 – 0.84, P < 0.0001; linear HR 1.87). This finding should inform our response to future variants of concern, currently Omicron. SARS-CoV2 variants that achieve dominance, have achieved this through a higher rate of infection and this evolutionary trajectory has also come with a correlated higher risk of severe disease. The surplus risk posed by Delta was significantly lower however in the vaccinated (model estimate -0.40, CI: -0.73 – -0.07, P = 0.017). Vaccination thus provided a disproportionate level of protection to hospitalisation with the Delta variant and provides further rationale for vaccination for SARS-CoV2 as a durable public health measure.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267799: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Literature search (final search 10 December 2021) was conducted in Google Scholar using the following search terms: “hospitalisation OR hospitalization” risk B.1.1.7 B 1.617 vaccinated (“hazard ratio” OR HR). Google Scholarsuggested: (Google Scholar, RRID:SCR_008878)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267799: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Literature search (final search 10 December 2021) was conducted in Google Scholar using the following search terms: “hospitalisation OR hospitalization” risk B.1.1.7 B 1.617 vaccinated (“hazard ratio” OR HR). Google Scholarsuggested: (Google Scholar, RRID:SCR_008878)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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