On the Role of Financial Support Programs in Mitigating the Sars-CoV-2 Spread in Brazil

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Abstract

We calculate the impact of a socioeconomic program during 2020 as a measure to mitigate the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Brazil. For each Brazilian State, we estimate the time-dependent reproduction number from daily reports of COVID-19 infections and deaths using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-like (SEIR-like) model. Then, we analyse the correlations between the reproduction number, the amount of individuals receiving governmental aid, and the index of social isolation based on mobile phone information. We conclude that socioeconomic programs had a significant impact on reducing the accumulated numbers of infections and deaths by allowing those in need to stay at home, adhering to social isolation.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.30.21267063: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    It is worth mentioning that the proposed methodology has some limitations. We cannot assert that the presence or the absence of the AE was the main factor in promoting adherence to social isolation. Other factors, such as the fear of an emerging deadly disease, may have helped to convince people to stay at home at the beginning of the outbreak. Also, psychological saturation can be one of the main reasons why people leave isolation. These factors are hard to include in a model and can affect the cause and effect relationship between socioeconomic programs and social isolation, as well as the disease spread. More sophisticated statistical tools can be used to investigate further such causal relationships, and they are the subject of future work. Different measures of mobility mainly based on mobile phone information were used to infer the real impact of initiatives like lockdowns on the contention of outbreaks [22, 24, 25, 26], as well as to describe the Spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease [19, 20, 23, 27, 28]. In the present work, we intended to shed light on the impact of a national socioeconomic program on disease spread contention, based on the premise that social isolation implies disease spread contention. As mentioned above, such a premise was widely tested and illustrated by our results.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


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