Updated Model for the USA Summer 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence

  1. Genghmun Eng

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Abstract

Over the course of the CoVID-19 pandemic, we utilized widely-available real-time data to create models for predicting its spread, and to estimate the time evolution for each of the USA CoVID-19 waves. Our recent medrxiv . org preprint ( 10 . 1101_2021 . 08 . 16 . 21262150 ) examined the USA Summer 2021 resurgence, from ∼6/7/2021 up through ∼8/15/2021 ( Stage 1 ). Our preprint covering this period showed that CoVID-19 could infect virtually all susceptible non-vaccinated persons, who were practicing minimal Social Distancing and NO Mask-Wearing .

The most recent USA Summer 2021 resurgence data, from ∼8/13/2021 up through 10/7/2021 ( Stage 2 ), shows a significant “flattening of the curve”. Since no new government mandates were involved, our interpretation is that some vaccine-hesitant people have now elected to become vaccinated. The Social Distancing parameter in our model showed a ∼6.67X increase between Stage 1 and Stage 2 , indicating that this parameter also can serve as an indicator of vaccination rates. The other parameter in our model, which is associated with Mask-Wearing , increased from zero to a finite but relatively small value. Using the 10/7/2021 USA CoVID-19 overall mortality rate of ∼1.60942 % gives these updated predictions for the total number of USA CoVID-19 cases and deaths:

N TOTAL (3 / 21 / 2022) ≈ 52, 188, 000 ; N Deaths (3 / 21 / 2022) ≈ 839, 900, N TOTAL (3 / 21 / 2024) ≈ [52, 787, 000 ; N Deaths (3 / 21 / 2024) ≈ 849, 600, assuming no new 2021 Winter Resurgence occurs ( with 3 Figures ).

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.15.21265078: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.15.21265078v1 on medRxiv