Can a vaccine-led approach end the NSW outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?
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Abstract
Abstract Background and Aims The New South Wales (NSW) COVID-19 outbreak is at 478 daily cases on August 16, 2021. Our aims were to: 1) estimate the time required to reach ≤5 cases per day under three lockdown strengths (weak, moderate, strong), and four vaccination rollouts: (a) per the original plan, (b) prioritizing essential workers, (c) b plus rapid vaccination of 25% of <60-year-olds with AstraZeneca (AZ25), and (d) b plus rapid vaccination of 50% of <60-year-olds with AstraZeneca (AZ50). 2) estimate the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the 100 days after 1/August for the 12 scenarios. Methods An agent-based model was adapted to NSW and the Delta variant. Hospitalization and mortality rates for unvaccinated COVID-19 infections were doubled given the virulence of Delta. Results The business-as-usual rollout fully vaccinates 50%, 70% and 80% of >16-year-olds by 10/Oct, 21/Nov, and 28/Dec, respectively. This reduced to 1/Oct, 30/Oct, and 22/Nov for the fastest (AZ50) rollout. A strong lockdown with a rapid vaccine rollout was the fastest to reach ≤5 cases (14-day average), with a median of 78 days (90% Uncertainty interval 61 - 103) or 18/Oct, compared to 207 days (166 - 254) or 24/Feb for a weak lockdown with no rollout acceleration. Increased lockdown strength had more impact than rollout acceleration. Under the AZ25 vaccination scenario, there were 1,440 (90% UI 262 - 10,600 deaths in the first 100 days of cases under a weak lockdown, compared to 71 (90% UI 26 - 178) under a strong lockdown scenario. Conclusion NSW will likely achieve 70% vaccination of >16-year-olds before reaching ≤5 daily cases. Accelerating the vaccine rollout is important for the medium-term, but in the short-term increased restriction strength was more effective at reducing caseload (and subsequently mortality and hospitalisation) than accelerating the vaccine rollout.
Article activity feed
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Consolato Sergi
Review 1: "Can a Vaccine-led Approach End the NSW Outbreak in 100 days, or at least Substantially Reduce Morbidity and Mortality?"
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Strength of evidence
Reviewer: C Sergi (University of Alberta) | 📗📗📗📗◻️
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.18.21262252: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.18.21262252: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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