Dynamics of the Third wave, modelling COVID-19 pandemic with an outlook towards India

  1. Ayanava Basak
  2. Sayanur Rahaman
  3. Abhishek Guha
  4. Tanmay Sanyal

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Abstract

Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated human civilization throughout the earth. The pandemic is returning in different waves because of constant changes in the genetic components of the virus. Had we been able to predict the nature and timing of these waves earlier, numerous lives could, in essence, have been saved. It is evident that the situation has spiraled out of control in several countries for want of proper preventive measures. In this article, we described a comprehensive mathematical approach to understand the nature of the pandemic waves. Also, we determined the probable timing of the third wave that will help the concerned government(s) to take the necessary steps to better prepare for the unforeseen situation.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.17.21262193: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Ethical Approval and Data Source: The data for the mathematical analysis was obtained from free reference websites, such as Worldometer and/or Wikipedia.
    Wikipedia
    suggested: (Wikipedia, RRID:SCR_004897)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.17.21262193 on medRxiv