Will a natural collective immunity of Ukrainians restrain new COVID-19 waves?

  1. Igor Nesteruk

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Abstract

The visible and real sizes the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine were estimated with the use of the number of laboratory-confirmed cases (accumulated in May and June 2021), the generalized SIR-model and the parameter identification procedure taking into account the difference between registered and real number of cases. The calculated optimal value of the visibility coefficient shows that most Ukrainians have already been infected with the coronavirus, and some more than once, i.e., Ukrainians have probably achieved a natural collective immunity. Nevertheless, a large number of new strains and short-lived antibodies can cause new pandemic waves. In particular, the beginning of such a wave, we probably see in Ukraine in mid-July 2021. The further dynamics of the epidemic and its comparison with the results of mathematical modeling will be able to answer many important questions about the natural immunity and effectiveness of vaccines.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.20.21260840: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.07.20.21260840v1 on medRxiv