Forecasting the incidence of viral hepatitis C in the Kyrgyz Republic using SARIMA models

Viral hepatitis remains one of the most significant public health problems in the Kyrgyz Republic. Despite the implementation of national immunization programs and improved epidemiological surveillance, hepatitis B and C continue to pose a serious threat to public health. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, thousands of cases of viral hepatitis were registered between 2014 and 2023, with differences in the epidemiological structure and prevalence dynamics of individual forms of the disease. [1, 2, 3] According to the WHO, viral hepatitis C, characterized by a chronic course and a high risk of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, is of particular concern. Despite the relative stabilization of the incidence, there remains a need to actively identify virus carriers and expand screening programs. [1,6]. The incidence of viral hepatitis B shows a steady downward trend, which is associated with the successful implementation of vaccination programs; however, the infection rate in some regions remains above the national average. Viral hepatitis A, on the contrary, exhibits pronounced seasonal fluctuations with epidemic increases in the autumn-winter period, which is associated with the feco-oral transmission mechanism and sanitary and hygienic conditions in populated areas. [9-10-12]. Forecasting viral hepatitis incidence dynamics using modern statistical methods such as ARIMA and SARIMA is an important tool for assessing future trends and planning preventive measures. [5] Modeling results enable healthcare authorities to promptly respond to potential epidemic surges, optimize resource allocation, and improve epidemiological surveillance strategies. The use of mathematical models that account for seasonality and trends is particularly relevant in the context of post-pandemic changes and reforms in the healthcare system of the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, studying the dynamics of viral hepatitis and forecasting its spread is not only scientifically but also of high practical importance for ensuring the country's epidemiological security.