Universal Rule for Covid 19 and Herd Immunity in the US
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
A new Universal rule for Covid 19 data is derived in this paper using the SIR model.
It relates infection and removal rates and is validated by the global Covid 19 data. Over 186,000 data points, from 190 countries and the states of the US, for the period April 1 to December 12, 2020 - fall on a single line, as the Universal rule predicts, transcending geography, ethnicity and race.
The Universal rule requires that Herd immunity begin when just 25% of the population is vaccinated. With the anticipated 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of the Biden administration, Herd immunity may be imminent in the US.
The Universal rule promotes a temporary stasis with continuing infections and hospitalizations and becomes a barrier to runaway infections, making it practically impossible to reach Herd immunity, as Sweden discovered. Reduced infected population seems to be a third option to stifle the epidemic - a little known accomplishment, first by North Dakota and subsequently by twelve other U.S. states, including South Dakota.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.05.21251577: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Since I(t) is included in the Johns Hopkins data on a daily basis, the integral can be calculated easily using a program like MATLAB or even using the trapezoidal rule. MATLABsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Google search yields many options. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)For a quantitative but numerical view of the data, we used Excel and its trendlines. Excelsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We …SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.05.21251577: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Since I(t) is included in the Johns Hopkins data on a daily basis, the integral can be calculated easily using a program like MATLAB or even using the trapezoidal rule. MATLABsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Google search yields many options. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)For a quantitative but numerical view of the data, we used Excel and its trendlines. Excelsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations of the model: The limitations of the SIR model are well documented and many of them inspired the formulation of other, more advanced and complex compartmental models. As pointed out earlier, adding more and more unknown parameters is not always prudent. Often the causal connections between the parameters are lost and then it becomes sheer curve fitting, not science. Of course, exogenous factors are out of control but there are specific features, like modeling the change in transmission rates, when more recovered people mix with the susceptible population could prove useful. These will challenge homogeneous mixing assumptions and perhaps help clarify the time dependence introduced, particularly in β. Clearly, for good forecasts there is a need for new and improved epidemic models that captures the time dependence of parameters, even while complying with the Universal rule. Will onset of Herd immunity lead to the end of the pandemic?: Probably not. Even though the pandemic is abating, it has not been eradicated. The residual infected populations can continue to infect, albeit at a lower rate. Continued mass vaccinations can off-set this reemergence of the epidemic and restore Herd immunity. An interesting way of looking at this is as follows. If we define “confirmed,” as (infected+ removed), the ratio of “infected” to “confirmed” is a useful metric for gauging potential residual damage to a population after onset of Herd immunity. In the South East Asian countries t...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
