Vaccination efforts in Brazil: scenarios and perspectives under a mathematical modeling approach
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Abstract
An agent-based model is proposed to access the impact of vaccination strategies to halt the COVID-19 spread. The model is parameterized using data from São Paulo State, Brazil. It was considered the two vaccines that are already approved for emergency use in Brazil, the CoronaVac vaccine developed by the Chinese bio-pharmaceutical company Sinovac and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (ChadOx1) developed by Oxford University and the British laboratory AstraZeneca. Both of them are two-dose schemes, but the efficacy and the interval between doses are different. We found that even in the worst scenario, in which the vaccine does not prevent infection either severe symptoms, the number of deaths decreases from 122 to 99 for CoronaVac application and to 80 for ChadOx1 administration. The same patterns have been seen in hospitalizations. Nevertheless, we show that when a low risk perception occurs, the reduction values decrease between 2% to 4%. Moreover, the increase of disease prevalence also jeopardizes immunization, showing the importance of the mitigation measures maintenance. On the other hand, doubling the vaccination rate would be able to significantly decrease the disease outcomes, reducing deaths by up to 74.4%. In conclusion, vaccination, along with non-pharmaceutical measures, is key to the control of COVID-19 in Brazil.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.22.21252208: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Given the reported number of vaccinated people per day during other immunization programs in Brazil, such as against poliomyelitis (which vaccinated 80 million children in three months) [8], it is fair to suppose that its production gives the limitation of vaccine distribution. In fact, the expected production rate of vaccines, when Butantan and Fiocruz reach their full capability, is around 1 to 3 million doses per day for each vaccine [5]. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.22.21252208: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Given the reported number of vaccinated people per day during other immunization programs in Brazil, such as against poliomyelitis (which vaccinated 80 million children in three months) [8], it is fair to suppose that its production gives the limitation of vaccine distribution. In fact, the expected production rate of vaccines, when Butantan and Fiocruz reach their full capability, is around 1 to 3 million doses per day for each vaccine [5]. Therefore, our results are conservative in this aspect since it is also expected that Brazil can provide vaccine access to its neighborhoods countries in South America. The scenario with a double vaccination rate was able to decrease the disease outcomes highly. Even for CoronaVac, which has a lower reported efficacy compared to ChadOx1, in the situation that the vaccine does not prevents infections neither severe symptoms (scenario 0%-0% Figure 4), the reduction in ICU admissions and deaths was above 25%. This could take the health system off the borderline of collapsing. Today, most non-elective surgeries are canceled, prejudicing a lot of Brazilian patients that have their quality of life diminished by it. A fast vaccination would also stop the emergence and spread of new variants of the virus, which is already on course in Brazil, England, and Africa. Once fewer people get infected, the lower is the mutation probability of the virus. When comparing the baseline scenario to the scenario in which the risk perception of vaccinated indivi...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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