Negative Excess Mortality in Pneumonia Death caused by COVID-19 in Japan
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Abstract
Background
Since the emergence of COVID-19, cases of excess mortality from all causes have been very few in Japan.
Object
To evaluate COVID-19 effects precisely, we specifically examine deaths caused by pneumonia and examine excess mortality attributable to pneumonia in Japan.
Method
We applied the NIID model to pneumonia deaths from 2005 up through November, 2020 for the whole of Japan. Introduction of routine pneumococcal vaccination for elderly people and revision in ICD10 were incorporated into the estimation model.
Results
No excess mortality was found for 2020. However, negative excess mortality was observed as 178 in May, 314 in June, and 75 in July. No negative excess mortality was not found between August and November.
Discussion and Conclusion
Significantly negative excess mortality might reflect precautions taken by people including wearing masks, washing hands with alcohol, and maintaining social distance. They reduced the infection risk not only of for COVID-19 but also of other infectious diseases causing pneumonia.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.22.21250283: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, our results reflected data throughSeptember, 2020 when the outbreak of COVID-19 was not severe. Subsequently, and especially in winter, a severer COVID-19 outbreak emerged. Negative excess mortality from pneumonia deaths might disappear. Continuous monitoring is expected to be necessary. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.22.21250283: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, our results reflected data throughSeptember, 2020 when the outbreak of COVID-19 was not severe. Subsequently, and especially in winter, a severer COVID-19 outbreak emerged. Negative excess mortality from pneumonia deaths might disappear. Continuous monitoring is expected to be necessary. Second, by rules governing the determination of the cause of death, some cases of death attributable to COVID-19 were not classified as pneumonia or as COVID-19 infection. The rule for cause of death requires classification by the most fundamental cause. For example, if cancer patients were infected by COVID-19, but then showed pneumonia and died, their proximate cause of death was probably cancer, and not COVID-19 or pneumonia. Therefore, some fraction of negative excess mortality by pneumonia might be classified as caused by other than pneumonia. However, even for periods when deaths of all causes in some months were fewer than the baseline, but not significantly in 2020 [1], the total deaths during the entire COVID-19 outbreak period were fewer than the usual level. Thirdly, similarly to the point raised earlier, if a healthy person was presumed to be infected with COVID-19, then showed pneumonia, and finally died, then the cause of death should be classified as COVID-19, or as U07.1, for an identified virus or as U07.12 for an unidentified virus under ICD10. Conversely, for a case in which a healthy person tested positive for COVID-19, showed...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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