The Potential for SARS-CoV-2 to Evade Both Natural and Vaccine-induced Immunity

  1. Emily Shang
  2. Paul H. Axelsen

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Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 attaches to the surface of susceptible cells through extensive interactions between the receptor binding domain (RBD) of its spike protein and angiotensin converting enzyme type 2 (ACE2) anchored in cell membranes. To investigate whether naturally occurring mutations in the spike protein are able to prevent antibody binding, yet while maintaining the ability to bind ACE2 and viral infectivity, mutations in the spike protein identified in cases of human infection were mapped to the crystallographically-determined interfaces between the spike protein and ACE2 (PDB entry 6M0J), antibody CC12.1 (PDB entry 6XC2), and antibody P2B-2F6 (PDB entry 7BWJ).

Both antibody binding interfaces partially overlap with the ACE2 binding interface. Among 16 mutations that map to the RBD:CC12.1 interface, 11 are likely to disrupt CC12.1 binding but not ACE2 binding. Among 12 mutations that map to the RBD:P2B-2F6 interface, 8 are likely to disrupt P2B-2F6 binding but not ACE2 binding. As expected, none of the mutations observed to date appear likely to disrupt the RBD:ACE2 interface.

We conclude that SARS-CoV-2 with mutated forms of the spike protein may retain the ability to bind ACE2 while evading recognition by antibodies that arise in response to the original wild-type form of the spike protein. It seems likely that immune evasion will be possible regardless of whether the spike protein was encountered in the form of infectious virus, or as the immunogen in a vaccine. Therefore, it also seems likely that reinfection with a variant strain of SARS-CoV-2 may occur among people who recover from Covid-19, and that vaccines with the ability to generate antibodies against multiple variant forms of the spike protein will be necessary to protect against variant forms of SARS-CoV-2 that are already circulating in the human population.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.13.422567: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Mutation sites were examined and figures were generated using PyMol.
    PyMol
    suggested: (PyMOL, RRID:SCR_000305)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    A limitation of this study is that the ability of a mutation to disrupt, destabilize, or permit a protein-protein interface was gauged visually, without the benefit of a molecular mechanics force field to quantify the effects of mutation, or of experimental data to verify the expected effects. Consequently, individual conclusions about a specific mutation may be in error. However, the overall pattern – namely that mutations at the antibody interfaces may not be permissive while not interfering with the ACE2 interface – is sufficiently clear and strong that sporadic errors would not negate the principle conclusions.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.12.13.422567v1 on bioRxiv